A lire sur: http://www.infoworld.com/t/application-development/the-black-art-of-estimating-it-project-costs-202504?source=IFWNLE_nlt_advice_2012-09-19
September 19, 2012
To estimate a project's expense, you need to understand and plan it. Anything less is a wild guess that will become an albatross
Last
week I received a question about project estimation. If you're part of a
next-generation IT group, project estimation is a critically important
capability. If, on the other hand, you're part of a more traditional IT
group, project estimation is a critically important capability.
For that matter, if you play a role anywhere in any sort of business that isn't entirely moribund, project estimation is ... that's right.
[ Find out the 10 business skills every IT pro must master, beware the 9 warning signs of bad IT architecture, and steer clear of the 12 "best practices" IT should avoid at all costs. | For more of Bob Lewis' continuing IT management wisdom, check out his Advice Line newsletter. ]
For more than a year, Advice Line has focused on next-generation IT: what it is, how it differs from traditional IT, why the differences matter, and how to make it happen.
But every so often I get a question worth sharing that doesn't have a next-gen-IT focus. And so, this week, we resurrect the old Advice Line question-and-answer format.
Sensei,
I was re-reading "Bare Bones Project Management" because I just started a new project.
The first thing I was asked: "How long do you think this will take?"
On page 20, your footnote says, "The answer lies in a black art called 'Project Estimation,' which is outside the scope of this book."
Have you ever written anything about this "black art"? Apparently "I have no idea" wasn't a good enough answer!
— Grasshopper
Grasshopper,
Jeez, quote a guy's own words back at him? Words in a footnote, no less?
I've written a bit about estimation, but not very much. It remains, to me, a black art. When I have no choice, here's how I go about estimating a project.
First and foremost, I inform the questioner:
Understanding the rule of corporate numbers is vitally important to anyone hoping for a career in management, project management, or for that matter, any professional responsibility. The question, "What will this cost?" asked when all you know is the name of a project, is a landmine. If you step on it, shame on you because you've ignored something said by Isaac Asimov years ago: "I can answer any question, so long as you agree that 'I don't know' is an answer."
If a guy as brilliant as Isaac Asimov was comfortable answering, "I don't know," you should be too.
For that matter, if you play a role anywhere in any sort of business that isn't entirely moribund, project estimation is ... that's right.
[ Find out the 10 business skills every IT pro must master, beware the 9 warning signs of bad IT architecture, and steer clear of the 12 "best practices" IT should avoid at all costs. | For more of Bob Lewis' continuing IT management wisdom, check out his Advice Line newsletter. ]
For more than a year, Advice Line has focused on next-generation IT: what it is, how it differs from traditional IT, why the differences matter, and how to make it happen.
But every so often I get a question worth sharing that doesn't have a next-gen-IT focus. And so, this week, we resurrect the old Advice Line question-and-answer format.
Sensei,
I was re-reading "Bare Bones Project Management" because I just started a new project.
The first thing I was asked: "How long do you think this will take?"
On page 20, your footnote says, "The answer lies in a black art called 'Project Estimation,' which is outside the scope of this book."
Have you ever written anything about this "black art"? Apparently "I have no idea" wasn't a good enough answer!
— Grasshopper
Grasshopper,
Jeez, quote a guy's own words back at him? Words in a footnote, no less?
I've written a bit about estimation, but not very much. It remains, to me, a black art. When I have no choice, here's how I go about estimating a project.
First and foremost, I inform the questioner:
- I won't know the answer until I'm in a position to develop a work breakdown structure that goes at least three layers deep.
- I'd rather not provide a SWAG (scientific wild-ass guess) because of the rule of corporate numbers, which states that any number uttered within anyone else's hearing is immediately chiseled into a slab of granite, there to be enshrined forever as an absolute commitment.
- I also need to know whether my estimate should include or exclude an allowance for contingencies.
Understanding the rule of corporate numbers is vitally important to anyone hoping for a career in management, project management, or for that matter, any professional responsibility. The question, "What will this cost?" asked when all you know is the name of a project, is a landmine. If you step on it, shame on you because you've ignored something said by Isaac Asimov years ago: "I can answer any question, so long as you agree that 'I don't know' is an answer."
If a guy as brilliant as Isaac Asimov was comfortable answering, "I don't know," you should be too.
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